Summary
TheMarvel Cinematic Universehas not had a Marvel Studios-produced $1 billion movie sinceAvengers: Endgame, begging the question of how likely each upcoming movie is to cross the landmark. Thelist of upcoming Marvel moviesis somewhat extensive and is only expected to be built on. Each of these movies has more pressure than they once would have, primarily due to the lack of $1 billion movies the franchise has had since 2019.
Since the release ofAvengers: Endgame, only two movies have crossed the milestone, and both were produced by Sony.Spider-Man: Far From HomeandSpider-Man: No Way Homesaw their immense profits go to Sony Pictures, meaning theMCU’s box office successesare not attributed to Marvel Studios of late. With only oneMarvel movie releasing in 2024belonging to Marvel Studios, all attention turns to whether the switch in release strategy will fix the poor box office run the studio has endured withAnt-Man and the Wasp: QuantumaniaandThe Marvels.
WhileGuardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3was a success for the MCU - and the onlybig-budget 2023 movie to turn a box office profit- there is no denying that Marvel Studios' period of sustained dominance between 2013 and 2019 is unlikely to be restored. That said, this will not stop Kevin Feige and the other creatives at Marvel Studios from trying, with several big movies coming in the next few years. With that in mind, here is every movie confirmed for release in the MCU ranked by how likely they are to cross the coveted $1 billion milestone.
7Blade
The Excitement Of The Project May Not Translate To Extreme Box Office Success
Coming in as the least likely upcoming MCU movie to cross $1 billion isBlade.Bladewas first announced at San Diego Comic-Con in 2019, but has suffered a period of development hell since. The initial announcement garnered much excitement due to the possibility of seeing a character as fun as Blade in the MCU and the casting of two-time Academy Award winner Mahershala Ali in the titular role.
Mahershala Ali was the one who initially pitched a Blade movie to Kevin Feige after hearing Marvel Studios were looking to reboot the franchise.
However, theBlademovie’s MCU storyhas significantly dwindled in excitement. Since its announcement,Bladehas undergone several major overhauls. The film’s original director, Bassim Tariq, departed the project due to creative differences, with Yann Demange coming in as his replacement. Demange then exited the project in 2024, this coming after five different writing teams attempted to craft a compelling script. These seemingly endless production issues have seriously impacted anticipation for the film, meaning it is less likely to hit $1 billion than the other upcoming MCU movies.
Blade
Cast
Marvel Studios' Blade sees the return of the iconic vampire hunter more than two decades after Wesley Snipes first played the character in live-action. Starring Mahershala Ali as Eric Brooks, the Blade reboot officially introduces vampires to the Marvel Cinematic Universe after Eternals' second post-credits scene teased the Daywalker’s MCU debut.
What’s Going On With Marvel’s Blade Movie
Though production on the film has been plagued with delays and crew changes, the MCU’s Blade reboot is still very much expected to go on.
6Captain America: Brave New World
Sam Wilson’s First Solo Outing Faces An Uphill Battle To Earn $1 Billion
The upcomingstory ofCaptain America: Brave New Worldis in a similar position toBlade, only on a lesser scale. LikeBlade,Captain America: Brave New Worldhas had some production issues including reshoots and rewrites. That said, the film has managed to retain the same director and writing team that were first announced to craft the story, giving it a significant advantage overBlade’s fractured production. Even so,Captain America: Brave New Worldhas some factors that make it less likely to hit $1 billionthan other MCU films.
The excitement of seeing Anthony Mackie as Captain America in his first solo movie gives the film will undoubtedly improve the film’s box office, though how much remains to be seen.
For one, the film is essentially a sequel toThe Falcon and the Winter Soldier.Unfortunately, it is coming four years after the release of the show, meaning Marvel has arguably already missed the opportune moment to releaseCaptain America 4. Furthermore, while the cast is exciting and promises wider MCU connections, it is a soloCaptain Americamovie, and only one such film has passed $1 billion at the box office. This movie wasCaptain America: Civil War, a pseudo-Avengersproject. For these reasons, it is difficult to seeCaptain America: Brave New Worldsurpassing the threshold.
Captain America: Brave New World
Captain America: Brave New World (formerly titledNew World Order)marks Sam Wilson’s first MCU big-screen appearance as Steve Rogers' successor after receiving the suit and shield in Phase 4’s The Falcon and the Winter Soldier. Anthony Mackie returns as the titular Avenger alongside Danny Ramirez as Joaquin Torres, Carl Lumby as Isaiah Bradley, and Tim Blake Nelson as The Incredible Hulk’s former ally Samuel Sterns. Harrison Ford makes his MCU debut replacing the late William Hurt as Thaddeus Ross.After meeting President Thaddeus Ross, Sam is caught in a global crisis. He must expose the mastermind behind a sinister plot before the world descends into turmoil. Captain America: Brave New World marks the big-screen debut of Sam Wilson as Captain America, and Harrison Ford makes his MCU debut, replacing the late William Hurt as Thaddeus Ross.
5Thunderbolts*
The MCU’s Next Team Up Movie Has The Potential Of Crossing $1 Billion
Thunderboltsis an interesting movie concerning its $1 billion chance. Regarding why it may not cross the milestone, the film is not necessarily one that many fans desired. The setup forThunderboltshas been evident throughout the MCU’s Phases 4 and 5, though many were disappointed at the team roster announced. The common consensus was that it lacked any real superpowered beings like Red Hulk or Abomination, with many - though not all - of the characters chosen for the film being lesser-known and less compelling in their individual stories.
Although the overall lack of outright excitement surroundingThunderboltsMCU story, there are some reasons that see it more likely to gross $1 billion thanCaptain America 4orBlade. To put it simply,Thunderboltsis a team-up movie. It will be the first project to feature a superhero team sinceAvengers: Endgame, with that alone meaning more people are likely to see it than solo movies with production issues. Secondly, the star power of the cast is great with the likes of Florence Pugh, Sebastian Stan, and David Harbor leading the team.
Thunderbolts*
Thunderbolts follows seven disillusioned individuals who find themselves trapped in a perilous situation. Tasked with a daunting mission, they must face the most shadowy aspects of their histories to survive and achieve their goals.
Marvel’s Thunderbolts Update Includes Strange Retitle: Here’s What It Could Mean
Marvel Studios has added an asterisk to the Thunderbolts' movie title, which could hint at major changes in the MCU movie’s plot or its production.
4The Fantastic Four
The Reboot Of Marvel’s First Family Has A Solid Chance To Be A Box Office Success
While it is worth noting that the prior movies all have a chance of crossing $1 billion, they are simply less likely to do so for various reasons. On the other hand, the first upcoming MCU movie that is likely to reach this threshold isThe Fantastic Four. Since its announcement,The Fantastic Fourhas had an unrivaled level of hype from the MCU fanbase. Casting announcements were speculated about for years, with updates about the film being coveted information before the director and cast members were officially confirmed.
WithThe Fantastic Fouralso being a team movie and having the benefit of being a much-maligned Marvel property that many hold the desire to see adapted correctly, the film is more likely to surpass $1 billion…
The announcement of the official cast only enhanced anticipation, and the film’s box office chances, thanks to the star power involved. Pedro Pascal, Vanessa Kirby, Joseph Quinn, and Ebon Moss-Bachrach were cast as the titular team withWandaVisiondirector Matt Shakman having picked his four. WithThe Fantastic Fouralso being a team movie and having the benefit of being a much-maligned Marvel property that many hold the desire to see adapted correctly, the film is more likely to surpass $1 billion than those before it.
The Fantastic Four: First Steps
The Fantastic 4: First Steps features Marvel’s First Family navigating their dual roles as superheroes and family members in a 1960s-inspired, retro-futuristic world. They defend Earth from a formidable space god, Galactus, and his enigmatic Herald, Silver Surfer, testing their familial bonds and heroic resolve.
8 Clues Marvel’s Fantastic Four Movie Is Set In A Different Universe To The MCU’s Earth-616
There are a handful of exciting clues and teases that Marvel Studios' The Fantastic Four will be set in an alternate universe beyond Earth-616.
3Avengers: The Kang Dynasty
An Avengers Movie Will Surely Succeed At The Worldwide Box Office
Since the MCU began, fourAvengersmovies have been released, five when countingCaptain America: Civil War’s star-studded cast. Every single one of these projects has surpassed $1 billion, making it incredibly likely thatAvengers: The Kang Dynastywill do the same. While the situation with theMCU’s former Kang actor Jonathan Majorsmay sour excitement for the film somewhat, his replacement will undoubtedly be handled well by Marvel, and should not completely negate anticipation for anAvengersmovie.
Besides Kang, the film is expected to feature the Multiverse Saga’s biggest characters and thus, the MCU’s most popular actors. LikeAvengers: Infinity War, the first part of the Infinity Saga’s finale,Avengers: The Kang Dynastywill bring together the disparate sections of the MCU in a major climactic story. When combined with the aforementioned feat ofAvengers-level films never dropping below $1 billion, the film’s promised cast and epic plot makeAvengers: The Kang Dynastyhighly likely to do the same.
Marvel Has Exactly 2 Years To Fix Avengers 5
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2Deadpool & Wolverine
The MCU’s Next Movie Has A Massive Chance At Hitting A Box Office Milestone
The next MCU movie, scheduled for release in July 2024, isDeadpool & Wolverine. More so than any other upcoming MCU film barring one,Deadpool & Wolverinehas the biggest chance to cross $1 billion. Not only is the story uniting Ryan Reynolds' Deadpool and Hugh Jackman’s Wolverine from theFoxX-Menmovie timeline, but it is doing so in the setting of the wider MCU. The multiversal storytelling will be incredible for fans of both franchises, with the two leads undoubtedly boosting the film’s chances.
These benefits, as well asDeadpool & Wolverine’s apparent importance to the Multiverse Saga’s overarching story, have proven to translate to box office success.Deadpool & Wolverinehas broken several pre-sale records, proving how much of a success the film will be. When taking into accountDeadpool & Wolverine’s confirmed China release, a massively important market for worldwide box office figures, it is an almost unthinkable scenario that the film does not cross $1 billion.
Deadpool & Wolverine
A follow-up to the highly successful Deadpool and Deadpool 2 films starring Ryan Reynolds as the Merc with a Mouth. The third film will be the first in the franchise to be developed under the Marvel Studios banner following Disney’s acquisition of 20th Century Fox.
1Avengers: Secret Wars
The Multiverse Saga’s Conclusion Is Expected To Rival Avengers: Endgame
The only upcoming MCU movie that is more likely to earn $1 billion thanDeadpool & WolverineisAvengers: Secret Wars. The film is billed as the final installment in the Multiverse Saga and will bring all elements of the MCU’s core timelines together. From the prime timeline of Avengers and the potential return of Tobey Maguire and Andrew Garfield as Spider-Man to the inclusion of oldX-MenandFantastic Fourcasts among other exciting cameos and variants,Avengers: Secret Wars’cast is expected to appeal to every single type of Marvel movie fan.
Avengers: Secret Wars' director and writer are yet to be confirmed, with the film scheduled to release in 2027.
This seemingly endless cast positionsAvengers: Secret Warsas the nextEndgame-level event, only this time across the vast multiverse. Although the dizzying size of the film’s ambitions could make it fall short quality-wise, the film only needs to be made well to all but guarantee a $1 billion gross. If the film is on a similar level toAvengers: Infinity WarandAvengers: Endgame, it could even cross $2 billion worldwide, marking it as an overwhelming success for theMarvel Cinematic Universeafter an unsteady few years in the commercial department.
Avengers: Secret Wars
Avengers: Secret Wars is an anticipated installment in Phase 6 of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, serving as the finale of The Multiverse Saga. Scheduled for release in December 2027, the film’s plot remains under wraps, fueling curiosity about its role in the expansive Marvel narrative.
